WEEKLY UPDATE - 04.09.2026

US and Iran reach ceasefire, but will it last?

Early Tuesday evening, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just ahead of a deadline set by President Trump. Over the weekend, President Trump issued threats to bomb Iran back to the “Stone age” if Iran did agree to open the Strait of Hormuz by 8pm EST on Tuesday. As part of the ceasefire, Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The US is sending a delegation including VP JD Vance, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to Pakistan to continue negotiations with Iran. According to multiple reports the ceasefire negotiations will be based on Iran’s 10-point proposal that includes demands to remove all sanctions, removal of US military bases from the region, and acceptance of Iran’s right to enrich uranium. These maximalist demands counter several US goals that include ending Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The ceasefire wavered on Wednesday as Israel continued to carry out strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baghar Ghalibaf accused Israel of violating the ceasefire, while Israel, which accepted the terms of the ceasefire, said that it did not extend to Lebanon. European diplomats scrambled to include Lebanon in the ceasefire deal. In the midst of the continued fighting, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a trickle. Israelis strikes on Wednesday, killed more than 100 Lebanese including the personal secretary to Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem.

(Note: I’m currently traveling, hence the early release this week, next week I’ll return to our normal release on Friday)

Around the Region

• North Africa:

  • Libyan officials said Ukrainian forces operating in Western Libya carried out an attack on a Russian tanker off its shores. According to the AP, the Russian tanker, which as carrying liquified natural gas, was part of a shadow fleet meant to avoid sanctions. Ukrainian drone operator are based in the Libyan towns of Zawiya, Tripoli, and Misrata.

  • Egypt enacted its plan to cuts fuel consumption amidst the global energy crisis. This included government imposed curfews on restaurants, clubs, and cafes, mandated remote work for certain professions, and cuts to street lighting. Egypt is among the region’s largest energy importers and its most heavily indebted countries.

• The Gulf:

  • The Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah freed US journalist Shelly Kittleson, whom it had kidnapped on 31 March. The militia said that it had come to the decision on the condition that Kittleson leave Iraq. According to anonymous Iraqi officials, the Iraqi government released several detained members of the organization in exchange for Kittleson’s release.

  • The Omani Minister of Transportation, Said al-Maawali, said that fees cannot be imposed on traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz under pre-existing international agreements. The statement conflicts with Iran’s efforts to regulate traffic through the Strait. In negotiations with the US, Iran had broached the idea of joint Iranian-Omani control of the vital waterway. Oman has historically had positive relations with both Iran and the Arab Gulf countries.

• The Levant:

  • Easter celebrations in Syria were muted in the wake of sectarian clashes in the Christian village of al-Suqaylabiyah, in Hama province. The clashes erupted last week after residents of al-Suqaylabiyah expelled two men who were allegedly harassing women. A Muslim mob returned to the town later and fired guns, smashed car windows, and damaged local shops before security forces entered the town to prevent further violence. As a result many Easter celebrations were confined to churches. Sectarian tensions continue to plague Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. The Syrian interim government criticized a NYT report about the kidnapping and trafficking of Alawite women over the past several months.

  • The Israeli government reopened the Al-Aqsa mosque to Palestinian worshippers following its forty-day closure over security concerns related to the war with Iran. Approximately 3000 Palestinian Muslims attended morning prayers at Al-Aqsa on Thursday according to the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera also reported that Israeli settlers later stormed areas of the compound and performed “Talmudic rituals” under the protection of security forces. Palestinian officials criticized new guidelines for regulating access to the site, saying that increased access for Israeli Jews has restricted Muslim access and worship at the site. In related news, The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli government had approved the creation of 34 new settlements in the West Bank during a meeting two weeks ago. The move comes at a time of intensified Israeli-settler violence directed at West Bank Palestinians.

Recommended:

• “Far From the Land of Good News” New Lines Magazine

• “The Forgotten War that Iran Already Won” The Atlantic

• “Yemen’s Teachers Pushed to the Brink as Salaries Collapse” Al Jazeera