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On Saturday, Israel and the United States began an intense air campaign against Iran targeting its military and political leadership prompting Iran to target Israel, several Arab states, and US assets in the region. Within the first day of the war, the US-Israeli air campaign killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei along with other high-ranking political officials. According to several reports, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamanei, the 56 year-old son of Ali Khamanei, is the leading front-runner to succeed his father. Mojtaba is a hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). As of writing, no successor to Ali Khamanei had been named. On Thursday, President Donald Trump told Axios that he should be involved in selecting the next leader of Iran. Currently Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, leads the day-to-day operations of the Iranian government until Khamanei’s successor is announced. The government has delayed naming a successor citing security concerns. Through six days of fighting the US and Israel have carried out several thousands of strikes on Iranian targets killing more than 1,200 according to Al Jazeera. This included an American strike that accidentally hit a an elementary school in the Iranian city of Minab killing around 165 school girls. According to reports the school was within 100 meters of a Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) base. According to the New York Times, US strikes damaged two other schools near Tehran. The US also sunk an Iranian ship off the coast of Sri Lanka killing more than 80. An Iranian strike on a US facility in Kuwait killed six US soldiers on Saturday. Iranian strikes on Israel have killed at least 11 people with several more killed in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE according to Al Jazeera. Several analysts have suggested that Iran views this war as an existential crisis for the Islamic Republic and calibrating its response in terms of survival and not deterrence. The scope of the war widened to Lebanon after Hezbollah fired a small volley of rockets into Israel on Monday. Israel pounded areas of southern Lebanon and the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh. On Thursday, the IDF issued evacuation orders for large portions of southern Lebanon along with the suburb of Dahiyeh. By Thursday evening, Israeli strikes in Lebanon had killed 77 and injured more than 600. In Yemen, Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, has threatened to aid Iran in its war effort but has yet to carry out significant attacks. Since the strikes on Saturday, the US government has yet to elucidate a clear message concerning both its wider goals in the conflict and an overall time table. Initial statements suggested that the conflict would be limited in scope and focus around either pressuring Iran to the negotiating table or destroy Iranian nuclear and ballistic facilities. However more recent statements suggest that the conflict will be longer, lasting weeks and/or months. Rumors have swirled that the US is planing on coordinating a Kurdish offensive in northeast Iran with its air campaign.
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