WEEKLY UPDATE - 01.30.2026

US Continues to Deploy Military Assets to the Gulf

Speculation continues to swirl around possible US military strikes on Iran as it continues to deploy military assets to the Persian Gulf. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier arrived in the region late last week along with a dozen F-15E attack planes, and several THAAD air defense systems. According to multiple reports, President Trump has been briefed on possible strikes targeting various aspects of the Iranian regime including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and installations belonging to the infamous IRGC. In the last couple of days President Trump has met with representatives from Israel and Saudi Arabia. More than three weeks ago President Trump threatened to attack Iran if the government forces cracked down on anti-government protests. Various sources estimate that Iranian regime massacred between 5-30,000 Iranian protesters during its crackdown on protesters two weeks ago.

Over the past several weeks the US and Iranian governments have traded threats. Iranian officials expressed defiance and insisted that they are ready to defend themselves against potential US strikes. Kita’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian backed militia in Iraq said that it was ready to unleash a wave of suicide bombers on US troops stationed in the region if the US strikes. In spite of the tensions, Iranian and US officials exchanged messages through intermediaries in hopes finding a diplomatic solution to ease the current tensions. The US is currently demanding that Iran give up its nuclear program as condition for further talks.

According to The Economist a potential US strike would likely follow one of three general paths: 1) a limited strike at symbols of the regime that allows Trump to claim he has enforced his red-lines while significantly hampering the regime; 2) a broader strike targeting the backbone of the regime, the IRGC and the Basij in hopes weakening the regime and possibly reigniting protests; and 3) targeted strikes aimed at the regime’s leadership including Ali Khamenei with the aim of decapitating the regime.

Around the Region

• North Africa:

  • The Algerian Ministry of National Defense announced that it killed three Moroccan citizens involved in drug trafficking near the city of Bechar on Wednesday. The authorities arrested a fourth Moroccan while seizing more than 74 kilograms of cannabis and a hunting rifle. Morocco’s Rif Mountain region is known for its production of cannabis.

  • The Libyan government reached a deal with the French Total Energies and the US Conoco Philips to help Libya develop its oil industry. The 25-year deal could help Libya more than double its output from 350 thousand barrels/day to more than 850 thousand barrels/day.

• The Gulf:

  • Hamid al-Shatri, Director of the Iraqi Intelligence Service, said that ranks of ISIS have grown from 2,000 fighters to more than 10,000 in roughly a year. Coming in an interview with an Iraqi news channel, al-Sharti’s comments connected the rise in ISIS membership to fighters once connected with the Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa who are disenchanted with his moderated politics since deposing Bashar al-Assad. US security officials, which have tracked ISIS membership in the past, have not updated its estimated totals of fighters at large since 2024.

• The Levant:

  • The Israeli Defense Forces recovered the remains of Ran Gvili, the last remaining hostage in Gaza on Monday. Palestinian militants kidnapped Gvili, who was a police officer, on 7 OCT 2023. The return of Gvili to Israel may possibly mark a shift to phase two of Trump’s 20-point plan as all the hostages have been returned. However serious obstacles remain ahead. On Thursday, Israel handed over the bodies of fifteen Palestinians through the International Committee of the Red Cross. In the West Bank, Israeli settlers continued attacks on Palestinian sites and homes. According to the IDF, settler attacks rose by more than 25 percent in 2025 and “severe attacks” rose by 50 percent.

  • The Syrian government continued negotiations with Kurdish factions to bring Syria’s Kurdish territories under the control over Damascus. Negotiations were sparked by a series of military clashes over the past month. On Wednesday, the Syrian government issued a decree granting all Kurds full citizenship and rights. The government has also set a deadline of 5 FEB to reach a final agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

Recommended:

• “What I Saw in Mashhad” The Atlantic

• “Hizbullah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been humbled” The Economist

• “Kurdish Nationalism Rears its Head in Syria” Diwan