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The electoral coalition led by current Iraqi PM Mohammad al-Sudani won the largest share of votes in Iraq’s parliamentary elections on Tuesday, but failed to reach an outright majority. The electoral results leave Sudani as the front-runner for who will form the next Iraqi government. Sudani campaigned as the candidate best positioned to balance Iraqi interests while reducing Iranian and American influence in Iraq’s politics and security situation. Additionally, Sudani pitched himself to the current US administration as the candidate most able to limit Tehran’s influence in Iraq. Several parties associated with Iran-backed Shi’a militias also performed well in the elections likely complicating Sudani’s efforts to form a new government in coming months. In his previous stint as PM, Sudani enjoyed the support of some Iran-backed militias and according to critics during Sudani’s tenure the influence of Iran-backed militias in Iraq increased. Michael Knights, an expert on modern Iraq, noted on X/Twitter that Sudani’s first term was tainted by corrupt deals that often strengthened groups like Assaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah. In spite of this, Iraqi analyst Sarmad al-Bayati said that it is likely that the main Shi’a parties will try and collapse Sudani’s coalition. According to reports in New York Times and Wall Street Journal, US officials have strongly signaled to Iraqi officials that they expect the next Iraqi government to disarm Iraqi militias aligned with Iran. According to Iraqi election officials, voter turnout exceeded the previous election at 56.11%, which Sudani praised as proof of the public’s confidence in the electoral process.
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