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On Monday, Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his father as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. The 56 year-old Khameni is reportedly close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the regime’s hardliners. The selection is generally seen as an act of defiance against the efforts of Israel and the United States to shape the future of Iran and reflects efforts to maintain continuity in the Islamic Republic. In his first public statement released on Thursday, Khamenei vowed to continue the fight threatening to “open” new fronts in the war and demanded that the Straits of Hormuz must remain closed as long as the war continued. As the war neared the end of its second week, Iran continued to attack its Arab neighbors and expanded attacks to tanker ships in the Persian Gulf. The US and Israeli militaries continued to pound Iran conducting thousands of strikes over the course of the war. According to Al Jazeera , Israeli and US strikes had killed at least 1,348 Iranians. Across the Middle East more than 700 people had been killed in the fighting including seven Americans and fifteen Israelis. Outside of Iran, the death toll is highest in neighboring Lebanon where Israel has carried out intense bombardments of Hezbollah positions and Shi’a communities. The Israeli campaign in Lebanon has displaced more than 800,000 Lebanese civilians according to aid groups. Several Israeli strikes came under question after hitting civilian areas such as the Thursday strike that hit a sea-front area in Beirut that killed fifteen. The posture and intensity of Israel’s campaign in Lebanon suggests that they intend for a longer fight against Hezbollah, which has launched several large volleys of missiles into Israel. It is difficult to ascertain the full impact of Hezbollah and Iran’s strikes on Israel due to government restrictions on the country. US officials, particularly President Trump, continue to provide mixed messaging on the goals and duration of the war. Earlier in the week, Trump said that the war was “very complete” before backtracking later the same day. US intelligence agencies assessed that the leadership of the Iranian government remains largely intact and does not appear at risk of collapse. Over the past week, the war has begun to seriously impact global energy supplies leading to a surge in the cost of a barrel of oil. The US responded by loosening sanctions on Russian oil and more than 32 countries agreed to release more than 400 million barrels of oil in order to stabilize oil prices. The moves have failed to significantly reduce oil prices.
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