WEEKLY UPDATE - 01.16.2026

Iranian Security Forces Kill Thousands as Trump Weighs Response

Iranian security forces used extreme violence to disperse anti-government protests over the past weekend as the country shutdown internet and phone services. Following the weekend, activists reported and provided video evidence of the security services firing indiscriminately into crowds across the country. Some estimate that the death toll in Iran ranges between 12,000 - 20,000 people which would make it far bloodier than the Shah’s crackdown on anti-government protesters during the Islamic Revolution in 1979. More modest estimates place the death toll around 2,500. Access to the internet and phone services remains extremely limited making it difficult to find reliable reporting on the protests.

US President Trump encouraged Iranians to continue protesting and to “take over your institutions” in a post on social media while threatening that the regime will “pay a big price” if the killing continued. According to several reports, the White House was weighing the efficacy of military strikes on the Iranian regime prompting Iran to close its airspace Thursday night before reopening them on Friday. Iranian officials threatened attacks on US soldiers in the region if the US carried out strikes on Iran. The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the Iranian government had halted the executions of more than 800 protesters providing a justification for the lack of a response to the regime. The Pentagon ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to relocate to the Middle East.

According to the New York Times, Israel’s PM reached out to President Trump on Thursday urging him to refrain from attacking Iran in the coming days. The report said that diplomats from Saudia Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Oman, and Egypt all expressed their opposition to a military strike on Iran fearing that it could unleash chaos in the region. Saudi Arabia told the US that it did not have permission to use its airspace to launch a strike on Iran. Direct lines of communication between Iran and the US have broken down due to rising tensions between the two countries. The US government responded to the crackdown by announcing sanctions on 18 people associated with the Iranian regime who were involved in laundering money on behalf of the regime.

Around the Region

• North Africa:

  • Morocco signed a joint military “work plan” for 2026 with Israel following meetings between Israeli and Moroccan military officials. The meetings focused on Israeli-Moroccan coordination and shared security objectives as well as partnering to develop drone and air defense systems.

  • On Tuesday the United States government labeled the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon as terrorist organization. US officials have debated labelling the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization for more than a decade. The leader of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Salah Abdel Haq, rejected the designation and said the group would pursue legal means to defend itself.

• The Gulf:

  • Iraq’s caretaker PM Shi’a al-Sudani is stepping aside to allow former Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki the support from the Coordination Framework, a network of Iran-backed Shi’a parties that has supported both politicians at different times. Neither Sudan nor Maliki were able to gain the support of the Coordination Framework outright leading the politicians to negotiate a solution. The move gives Maliki the inside track at becoming Iraq’s next PM.

  • Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council appointed the government’s Foreign Minister, Shaya Mohsin al-Zidani, as the country’s new PM following the resignation of Salman bin Bbraik.

• The Levant:

  • US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff announced the transition to phase of President Trump’s 20-point peace plan on Wednesday. The announcement comes as negotiators reached a consensus on the members of the so-called “Board of Peace,” a 15 member committee of Palestinian technocrats appointed to administer the affairs of the Gaza Strip. The announcement included few details and did not name those who would serve on the committee. The plan still faces significant obstacles, most notably the disarmament of Hamas and the halting of Israeli strikes and demolitions in Gaza. On Thursday, Israel conducted two strikes in Gaza killing seven including a senior Hamas military official.

  • Fighting between the Syrian government forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo Governorate entered a second week as the government ordered civilians to evacuate some rural areas on Thursday. The Syrian government accused the SDF of deploying its forces to the areas of Dayr Hafr and Maskana. At least 23 people have been killed in clashes between the groups over the past week.

Recommended:

• “I was kidnapped by idiots” The Atlantic

• “Syria’s Circassian Community is Finding its Voice” New Lines Magazine

• “What the collapse of Iran’s regime would mean” The Economist