An Optimistic View of the War in Iran
There is no shortage of doom and gloom circulating around the week-old war in Iran. A majority of Americans currently oppose the war according to the most recent reporting. Highly-regarded experts such as Karim Sadjadpour and Vali Nasr have expressed doubts about the prospects of the war. There are no shortage of examples how both US and Israeli interventions in their neighboring countries created significant blowback and contributed to the region’s overall instability over the past several decades. The failures from Libya to Afghanistan are many and the successes are nearly non-existent. However, history is a poor guide to the future and even the experts are wrong sometimes. While I’m personally skeptical of the current conflict as I laid out in my previous post, there is value in exploring a more optimistic view of the war.
Historical Amnesia vs. Collective Memory
The current war between the US and Iran has opened a pandora’s box concerning the future of Iran. Given the history of Iran and its neighbors, it is highly unlikely that this conflict yields a net positive result. It is also true that we won’t know the full impact of this war, for good or for bad, for years to come. The war has already resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled the country since 1987. However, if this war is going to bear fruit, at some level, Trump’s historical amnesia will have to overcome Iranians’ collective memory.
How to Follow Protests in Iran
Roughly two weeks ago a sudden collapse in the value of the Iranian rial sparked protests in Iran. The protests quickly took on an anti-government tone with chants of “death to the dictator,” “we fight, we die, we take back Iran” and “neither headscarf no baton; freedom and equality,” among others. The protests have quickly engulfed Iran’s major cities and rival past outbursts of protests including those in 2009, 2018, and 2022. Over the past year the Iranian regime has weathered a devastating war with Israel (and to a very limited extent the US), a worsening water crisis, and a struggling economy. It is difficult to gauge the exact popularity of the regime in Tehran with much accuracy, but it is clear that support is quite limited, especially in certain neighborhoods across the capital. Given the blows to the Islamic Republic over the past years, many analysts are trying to discern how much more it can take before it collapses or splinters.
We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know
Two weeks ago the US bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran riding the coattails of Israel’s air campaign that decapitated much of the Islamic Republic’s senior military leadership and decimated its air defenses. Over the past two weeks, much of the US foreign policy establishment debated the efficacy of the strikes and what they mean for the future of regional security. President Trump triumphantly claimed that the US had obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. A preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency leaked to the press assessed that the bombings had only set back Iran’s program a few months. Later in the week, the CIA released a more detailed report that said Iran’s program had been pushed back years. A chorus of analysts, pundits, and public activists have all weighed in on the matter with varying assessments shaded by personal bias. What is missing from many of these assessments is the humility and willingness to admit what we don’t know.
Regime Change in Iran is Israel’s Objective
Two decades ago Netanyahu testified before congress urging the US to remove Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. During his testimony he also expressed his desire for regime-change in neighboring Iran as well. During remarks Friday, Netanyahu called for an uprising in Iran saying, "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime." Netanyahu is currently hedging his bets that Israel can facilitate the regime’s collapse through armed strikes decapitating Iranian leadership and degrading its military to a point where the Iranian people can oust the current regime. Its an incredibly risky gamble with tremendous pit-falls but a possibly major pay off if it succeeds.
Searching for an Iran that never was
There is a prevailing view among many that the status of women in the Iran has regressed since the Islamic Revolution and while there is a portion of truth in this view, the historical reality is more complex.