Maghrebi Adventures
Eighteen months ago I began planning for my first sabbatical as a professor. My original plans were to spend several months in Jordan refreshing my Arabic and immersing myself in Arabic. About a year ago, as tensions between Israel and Iran began ratcheting up, the prospects for studying in Jordan looked shaky and I pivoted to studying in Morocco. Throughout my education and professional career, the focus of my studies has been focused around the Mashriq, or the eastern portion of the Arabic-speaking world (Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf countries), and the study of the Maghreb (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria) has been neglected. While I visited Tunisia in 2022 and Morocco in 2024, my knowledge of the country is still pretty limited and I’m really excited for the upcoming seven and a half weeks I’ll be spending in the region studying Arabic and Medieval Islamic history in Morocco and Spain.
We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know
Two weeks ago the US bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran riding the coattails of Israel’s air campaign that decapitated much of the Islamic Republic’s senior military leadership and decimated its air defenses. Over the past two weeks, much of the US foreign policy establishment debated the efficacy of the strikes and what they mean for the future of regional security. President Trump triumphantly claimed that the US had obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. A preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency leaked to the press assessed that the bombings had only set back Iran’s program a few months. Later in the week, the CIA released a more detailed report that said Iran’s program had been pushed back years. A chorus of analysts, pundits, and public activists have all weighed in on the matter with varying assessments shaded by personal bias. What is missing from many of these assessments is the humility and willingness to admit what we don’t know.
Regime Change in Iran is Israel’s Objective
Two decades ago Netanyahu testified before congress urging the US to remove Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. During his testimony he also expressed his desire for regime-change in neighboring Iran as well. During remarks Friday, Netanyahu called for an uprising in Iran saying, "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime." Netanyahu is currently hedging his bets that Israel can facilitate the regime’s collapse through armed strikes decapitating Iranian leadership and degrading its military to a point where the Iranian people can oust the current regime. Its an incredibly risky gamble with tremendous pit-falls but a possibly major pay off if it succeeds.
Gaza is Breaking our Minds
I left the government in 2020 for the cushy life of an academic and I had thought I had left the unpleasant images of my previous career behind. That is until 7 OCT 2023. The atrocities committed by Hamas in the name of resistance unleashed a hell on Gaza and its people that are reminiscent of the worst of the Syrian Civil War (as evidenced in the juxtaposed images of Gaza and Syria below). Each day new images of bombed out cities, lifeless bodies, and child amputees, and now starving civilians flood my social media feeds (probably as the result of carefully curated algorithms). These images are often followed by Israeli officials and pundits justifying their actions claiming there are no innocents in Gaza, or referring to Palestinians as animals, and even justifying the legitimacy of rape in war. To put it bluntly, Israel has come to resemble in many respect the Assad regime in Syria.
Syria, the Druze, and Israel
Israel’s continued involvement in Syria in my opinion is more likely to bring more danger to the Druze than it is to bring stability to the region. Continued Israeli strikes against the government will harden anti-Druze sentiment in both Syria and the greater region. It also risks further dividing the Syrian community and possibly sparking intra-communal violence. Ultimately, I’m of the opinion that a stable Syria is in Israel’s long-term interests, unfortunately Israel doesn’t see it that way.
Syria and the Long Shadow of Sectarian Violence
The Levant, also sometimes referred to as Greater Syria, could be called a rich tapestry of ethnic and religious diversity. Various Christian sects, Sunni and Shi’a Muslims, Druze, and Alawites all call the region home as do Arabs, Kurds, Armenians, and Circassians. Until the last century, even a significant number of Jews called its urban centers home. Instead the region is more often portrayed as a simmering cauldron of ethnic and religious tensions, blood feuds, and sectarian hatreds frequently boiling over into massacres, killings, and discrimination. When reporting on sectarian violence, like the recent events in Syria, the media often resorts to simplistic narratives of sectarian violence that often place the causes in primordial hatreds of difference. On a very surface level sectarian violence is easy to explain, but its root causes are often more convoluted and complex than they appear.
Sectarian Bloodletting or Last Gasp of a Dying Regime
The “fog of war” has settled over the ongoing clashes and the truth probably lies somewhere in between. Most Western media outlets have painted the events through a lens of sectarian reprisal killings, but some on social media have challenged this narrative. I hope to write something more substantive about the history of sectarianism in the Levant later this week, but in the meantime I would like to share a couple of social media posts to demonstrate the competing narratives floating around X/Twitter where many analysts like to pontificate.
Israelis, Palestinians, and Double Standards
Yesterday the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed titled “If Indians and Pakistanis Can Relocate, Why Can’t Gazans?” in it Sadanand Dhume argues on behalf of President Trump’s plan to relocate roughly two million Palestinians. The crux of his argument is that population transfers are not new and they work. He cites examples such as the Greco-Turkish war following WWI and most notably the infamous partition of India and Pakistan. While he acknowledges the difficulty of Trump’s scheme his rationale is applied selectively. Many critics were quick to point out that if the roles were reversed, its unlikely that the WSJ or other major media outlets would give voice to the argument.
Making Sense of Trump’s Gaza Plan
On Tuesday evening, President Trump announced that the U.S. would take ownership of and rebuild Gaza while relocating the enclaves roughly 2.3 million inhabitants elsewhere. Previously the president had floated the idea of relocating Gazans to Egypt and Jordan to which Arab governments have flatly rejected. Trump’s announcement prompted a flurry of praise, criticism, and questions including: Was he serious?, Is this feasible?, What is the price tag? Who will live in Gaza after reconstruction?
The Settlers and the Ceasefire
Today there are more than half a million Israelis living in illegal settlements built on Palestinian land. Most of these Israelis were drawn to the settlements by cheap home prices, but a significant number are vocal ideologues motivated by the concept of “Eretz Israel” or Greater Israel. When using the term settler in this post, I’m referring to this latter group. The settlers advocate for the expansion of Israel’s borders including the annexation of the West Bank, which many Israeli Jews refer to as “Judea and Samaria”, and since 7 OCT 2023 the reoccupation of Gaza. Since the 1970s, the settlers have been an influential constituency in Israel and have consistently demonstrated their ability to influence Israeli elections and policy. Over the next six weeks, the settlers will likely seek to undermine the current ceasefire and any attempt to extend the agreement to phases two or three.
A Fragile Truce
The news of a potential cease-fire and hostage release is long overdue and should be celebrated as good news. The Israeli hostages and civilians in Gaza have endured almost incalculable suffering over the past fourteen months and it is criminal that it has taken this long to come to any sort of resolution. However, before we carried away in celebrations, we should be wary of what comes next. The next four days will provide ample opportunity for this deal to unravel and there are definitely those who will seek to undermine it in hopes of continuing the war. Even if this deal makes it to Sunday, I believe there is a strong possibility of this deal falling apart over the next several months. It should be remembered that brief wars in 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021 all ended with deals that did not hold.
Tracking the Political Transition in Syria
What lies next for Syria is impossible to predict, but it won’t stop many from trying. Revolutions and regime-changes are volatile capable of transforming in ways we can’t imagine.However, I’m not without my own reservations. Syria’s future likely rests not only in its new leaders but also in the international community and its response (sanctions relief is absolutely necessary). Rather than attempt to write my own thoughts on the current events in Syria, I would just like to share links to some of the most best reporting on what has happened and is happening in Syria now.
Three Books I read in 2024
At the beginning of every year I typically set a goal to read a set number of books. While most of the books I read deal with the history of the Middle East, I try to read on a broad spectrum of topics including general history, current events, and human interests/memoirs/biographies, and general fiction (typically novels, but also graphic novels like Shubeik Lubeik and Persepolis). However for the purpose of this blog I will only write about books that are relevant to the Middle East. As this year ends, I would like to highlight three books I’ve read in the last year that I find particularly relevant to understanding the region and its history.
Is the Nativity a Palestinian Story?
There are several parallels between the plight of Palestinians today and the plight of first century Jews living under Roman-rule which has prompted some Palestinians to use the symbols of the Nativity to critique Israel’s occupation and treatment of Palestinians.
Searching for an Iran that never was
There is a prevailing view among many that the status of women in the Iran has regressed since the Islamic Revolution and while there is a portion of truth in this view, the historical reality is more complex.
Israel’s Endgame in the Golan
On 8 DEC, the Israeli Defense Force entered a demilitarized portion of Syrian territory abutting the Occupied Golan Heights violating a 1974 agreement between Syria and Israel prompting questions about what is Israel’s end goal.