An Optimistic View of the War in Iran
There is no shortage of doom and gloom circulating around the week-old war in Iran. A majority of Americans currently oppose the war according to the most recent reporting. Highly-regarded experts such as Karim Sadjadpour and Vali Nasr have expressed doubts about the prospects of the war. There are no shortage of examples how both US and Israeli interventions in their neighboring countries created significant blowback and contributed to the region’s overall instability over the past several decades. The failures from Libya to Afghanistan are many and the successes are nearly non-existent. However, history is a poor guide to the future and even the experts are wrong sometimes. While I’m personally skeptical of the current conflict as I laid out in my previous post, there is value in exploring a more optimistic view of the war.
Historical Amnesia vs. Collective Memory
The current war between the US and Iran has opened a pandora’s box concerning the future of Iran. Given the history of Iran and its neighbors, it is highly unlikely that this conflict yields a net positive result. It is also true that we won’t know the full impact of this war, for good or for bad, for years to come. The war has already resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled the country since 1987. However, if this war is going to bear fruit, at some level, Trump’s historical amnesia will have to overcome Iranians’ collective memory.